German state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin could intensify pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz, with the far-right AfD and SPD in tight races. The AfD, which previously came close to winning an absolute majority in Saxony-Anhalt, is expected to gain ground again, while Merz's CDU faces a historic threat of falling below the 5% threshold in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the SPD's Manuela Schwesig is in a tight race against the AfD's Leif-Erik Holm, with the AfD polling at 37% and the SPD at 33%. The CDU, led by Merz, is at 7%, just above the 5% threshold needed to enter the state parliament. A CDU collapse below that line would be a historic first and add pressure on Merz.
The AfD's rise is part of a broader trend, with the party transforming from a fringe eurosceptic movement to the country's most popular party. The 'firewall' strategy, under which other parties refuse to form coalitions with the AfD, is under scrutiny. Merz's approval ratings have plunged to 14%, raising doubts within his own CDU about his leadership.
The elections come as Germany grapples with rising energy and housing costs, with Merz facing pressure to agree relief measures with his coalition partners. The AfD's potential gains could challenge the CDU's hold on power, while the far-left Die Linke is also making inroads in Berlin, threatening the conservative hold on the mayor's office.